点击进入!

21鐐规€庝箞鐜?/p>

铏界劧鍚勭鐢靛奖閲屽父鏈?1鐐圭殑鍦烘櫙锛屼絾瀹冩瘯绔熷彧鍦ㄨ祵鍦洪噷娴佽锛屽疄闄呯帺杩囩殑浜轰笉澶氾紝璁╂垜浠厛鏉ヤ粙缁嶄竴涓?1鐐圭殑鐜╂硶銆?/p>

杩欎釜娓告垙鍒嗗簞銆佺帺涓ゆ柟锛岄€氬父搴勫鍦ㄤ竴寮犲崐鍦嗗舰鐨勭墝妗屼笂鍚屾椂搴斾粯鍚勮嚜涓烘垬鐨?鍒?涓帺瀹讹紝閬撳叿灏辨槸澶氬壇闄ゅ幓澶у皬楝兼贩鍦ㄤ竴璧风殑鎵戝厠鐗屻€傜帺瀹剁殑鐩爣鏄鑷繁鐗岀殑鐐规暟鍜屽ぇ浜庡簞瀹讹紝涓嶈繃杩欎釜鍜屽鏋滆秴杩?1鐐瑰氨鐩存帴鍑哄眬浜嗭紙涔熷氨鏄垎浜嗭級銆傝姳鐗岀畻10鐐癸紝A鍙互鏍规嵁闇€瑕佺畻鎴?11 鍒嗘垨 1 鍒嗐€?/p>

棣栧洖鍚堢帺瀹跺拰搴勫閮戒細寰楀埌涓ゅ紶鍒濆鐗岋紝鍚勮嚜鍙炕寮€涓€寮犮€備箣鍚庢瘡涓€鍥炲悎锛岀帺瀹跺彲浠ラ€夋嫨锛?/p>

鈼?鎷夸竴寮犵墝锛圚it锛?/p>

鈼?缁撴潫鎷跨墝锛圫tand锛?/p>

鈼?璧屾敞缈诲€嶅苟鎷夸竴寮犵墝锛圖ouble锛?/p>

鈼?濡傛灉鎷垮埌鐨勪袱寮犵墝鐩稿悓锛岀帺瀹跺彲鎶婅繖涓ゅ紶鐗屽垎寮€锛屽帇涓婂彟涓€浠藉悓鏍风殑璧屾敞锛屽苟浠庡簞瀹跺鑾峰緱鍙﹀涓ゅ紶鐗岋紝鐩稿綋浜庝竴娆″悓鏃剁帺涓ゅ眬锛圫plit锛?/p>

鈼?璁よ緭锛屾姇闄嶈緭涓€鍗婂苟寮€濮嬩笅涓€灞€锛圫urrender锛?/p>

瑕佹敞鎰忕殑鏄紝鍏朵腑Double銆丼plit銆丼urrender鍙兘鍦ㄧ涓€鍥炲悎閫夋嫨銆傛湁鐨勮祵鍦哄厑璁?Split 涔嬪悗 Double鎴栬€呯户缁?Split锛屾湁鐨勮祵鍦哄垯涓嶅厑璁?Surrender銆?/p>

褰撴墍鏈夌帺瀹堕兘缁撴潫鎷跨墝鍚庯紝搴勫缈诲紑棣栧洖鍚堢洊浣忕殑鐗岋紝 濡傛灉鐐规暟鍜屽皬浜?7灏辨嬁鐗岋紝鐩村埌鐐规暟鍜屽ぇ浜庣瓑浜?7 锛屽簞瀹朵笉 Double銆?Split 鎴栬€匰urrender銆傚鏋滃簞瀹剁垎鐗岋紝鎵€鏈夌帺瀹堕兘鑾疯儨銆傚鏋滃簞瀹舵病鏈夌垎锛屾瘮搴勫鐐规暟澶氱殑鐜╁鑾疯儨锛岀偣鏁扮浉鍚岀殑璇濅负骞冲眬锛岀偣鏁板皯灏辫緭浜嗐€?/p>

褰撶劧 21 鐐硅繕鏈変竴浜涚壒娈婄殑瑙勫垯姣斿淇濋櫓锛圛nsurance锛夊拰Blackjack锛堟嬁鍒颁竴寮燗鍜屼竴寮?0鐐圭殑鐗岋級锛岃繖閲屽氨涓嶈禈杩颁簡銆?/p>

楂樼璧屽緬濡備綍瑕佺墝

鍙互鐪嬪埌21鐐瑰苟涓嶅鏉傦紝鏁板瀹朵滑寰堝鏄撴壘鍑烘渶浣宠鐗岀瓥鐣ャ€傝绠楄〃鏄庯紝鏈€浣崇帺娉曚娇寰楃帺瀹惰儨鐜囪揪鍒?49% 宸﹀彸銆傚鑱屼笟璧屽緬鏉ヨ锛屽仛鍒拌繖鐐规病鏈変粈涔堝洶闅撅紝鎵€璋撴渶浣崇帺娉曚笉杩囨槸 3 涓煩闃碉紝璁颁笅鏉ュ氨鍙互浜嗐€?/p>

涓婇潰 3涓煩闃靛嚑涔庢兜鐩栦簡璧屽眬涓婂彲鑳藉嚭鐜扮殑鎵€鏈夋儏鍐点€傞《閮ㄦí鎺掑潗鏍囪〃绀哄簞瀹堕鍥炲悎缈诲紑鐗岀殑鐐规暟锛圱涓?0鐐癸級銆傜涓€涓煩闃电珫鎺掓渶宸﹀垪琛ㄧず鐜╁褰撳墠鎵嬬墝鐐规暟鍜岋紝 H 鍗?Hard锛屽氨鏄瑕佹妸鎵嬬墝涓殑 A 褰撴垚 1 鐐规潵绠楋紙濡傛灉鏈夌殑璇濓級锛屽彟澶栦袱涓煩闃电珫鎺掓渶宸﹀垪琛ㄧず鐨勭帺瀹舵墜涓婄殑涓ゅ紶鐗屾槸浠€涔堛€?/p>

鍓╀笅鐨勭煩闃靛厓绱犲氨鏄帺瀹跺搴旂殑鏈€浣虫搷浣溿€傚叾涓?H 琛ㄧず Hit锛?S 琛ㄧず Stand锛?P 琛ㄧずSplit锛?D 琛ㄧず Double锛堝鏋滆鍒欎笉鍏佽灏盚it锛夛紝 Ds 琛ㄧず Double锛堝鏋滆鍒欎笉鍏佽灏盨tand锛夈€?/p>

浠旂粏瑙傚療涓婇潰 3 涓煩闃碉紝璁稿瑕佺墝绛栫暐绋嶅姞鎬濊€冨氨鍙槑鐧姐€備絾涔熸湁涓€浜涘緢鏈夋剰鎬濈殑鍦版柟锛屾瘮濡傝褰撴墜鐗屽拰涓?12 鏃讹紝搴勫鐗岄潰涓?2 鎴?3 瑕?Hit锛?4 鍒?6 瑕丼tand锛屽綋搴勫鐗岄潰鏇村ぇ鏃跺垯搴斿潥鍐宠鐗屻€?/p>

涓轰粈涔堜細杩欐牱锛熶粈涔堟椂鍊欒鐗屼粈涔堟椂鍊欎笉瑕侊紝姒傜巼璇翠簡绠椼€備笉濡ㄨ鎴戜滑鍏堟潵鐪嬬湅鐜╁ 12 鐐规椂 Stand 鐨勮儨鐜囥€傚簞瀹跺紑濮嬫娊鐗屽悗锛岀偣鏁板拰澶т簬绛変簬 17 鎵嶄細鍋滄銆傝繖鏃剁帺瀹惰鑾疯儨鍙兘瀵勫笇鏈涗簬搴勫鐖嗙墝銆?/p>

濡傛灉搴勫璧峰鐐规暟澶т簬绛変簬 17锛屾牴鏈笉鐢ㄦ娊鐗屻€傜偣鏁板拰涓?H16 鏃讹紝鎶藉埌 6~T 浼氱垎鎺夈€傛垜浠煡閬擄紝鎶藉埌涓嶅悓澶у皬鐨勭墝鐨勬鐜囨槸鐩哥瓑鐨勶紙1/13锛夛紝璁?F(x) 鏄綋鍓嶇偣鏁板拰涓?x 鏃剁户缁娊鐗岀垎鎺夌殑姒傜巼锛岄偅涔堬細

F(H16) = 8/13 = 0.61538

褰撳簞瀹舵墜鐗岀偣鏁板拰涓?H15 鏃讹紝鎶藉埌 7~T 鐖嗘帀锛涙娊鍒?A 灏卞寲褰掓垚浜?H16 鐨勬儏鍐碉細

F(H15) = 7/13 + 1/13×F(H16) = 0.58580

鍚岀悊鍙畻鍑?H14 鍒?H6 鐨勭垎鐗屾鐜囥€傚綋搴勫鎵嬬墝鍜屼负 H5 鏃讹紝鎯呭喌鍙堟湁鎵€涓嶅悓锛岃繖鏃?A 鍙互琚畻浣?1鐐癸紝鎶婅繖涓彉鍖栬€冭檻杩涙潵鍚庯紝涔熶笉闅剧畻鍑?H2—H5 鐨勬儏鍐点€?/p>

閭ｅ鏋滄槸鐜╁閫夋嫨 Hit 鍛紵杩欐椂鏈変袱绉嶈幏鑳滄儏鍐碉細

鐜╁娌＄垎浣嗘槸搴勫鐖嗙墝

鐜╁鍜屽簞瀹堕兘娌＄垎浣嗗簞瀹剁偣鏁板皬

鐖嗙墝鐨勬鐜囧凡缁忕畻杩囷紝鐜板湪鏉ヨ€冭檻姣斿ぇ灏忚繖绉嶆儏鍐点€傚鏋滃簞瀹剁涓€寮犵墝涓?2锛屼护 G锛坸锛?涓哄簞瀹跺緱鍒扮偣鏁板拰涓?x 鐨勬墜鐗岀殑姒傜巼锛屽垯 G(H2) = 1銆?/p>

濡傛灉搴勫鎵嬬墝鍜屽彉涓?H3锛屽彧鑳芥槸鍦?H2 鐨勬儏鍐典笅鎶藉埌涓€寮?A锛屽嵆锛?/p>

G(H3) = 1/13×G(H2) = 0.07692

绫讳技鍦板彲绠楀嚭 H4 鍒?H 21 鐨勬鐜囷紝渚濈劧瑕佹敞鎰?A 绠楁垚 11 鐐圭殑鎯呭喌銆傚湪鍙屾柟閮芥病鐖嗙墝鐨勬儏鍐典笅锛岀帺瀹堕€氳繃姣斿ぇ灏忚幏鑳滃彧鏈変互涓嬪嚑绉嶅彲鑳斤細

鐜╁鎷垮埌21鐐癸紝搴勫鎷垮埌20~17鐐?/p>

鐜╁鎷垮埌20鐐癸紝搴勫鎷垮埌19~17鐐?/p>

鐜╁鎷垮埌19鐐癸紝搴勫鎷垮埌18鍜?7鐐?/p>

鐜╁鎷垮埌18鐐癸紝搴勫鎷垮埌17鐐?/p>

鐜╁浠?12 鐐瑰紑濮嬫娊鐗岋紝鎷垮埌 18 鐐癸紝鐩稿綋浜庝粠 H2 寮€濮嬫娊锛屾嬁鍒?H8锛屽洜姝ゆ鐜囦负G锛圚8锛夛紝鑰屽簞瀹舵嬁鍒?17 鐐圭殑姒傜巼 G锛?7锛夈€傛嵁姝ゆ儏鍐?鐨勬鐜囦负锛?/p>

P4 = G锛圚8锛?times;G锛?7锛?/p>

鍚岀悊鍙互绠楀嚭P3锛孭2锛孭1銆傚洜姝ゅ湪鐜╁鎵嬬墝鍜屼负 H12锛屽簞瀹剁涓€寮犵墝涓?2 鐨勬儏鍐典笅鐜╁閫夋嫨 Hit 鐨勮幏鑳滄鐜囦负锛?/p>

P(H) = P1 + P21 + P22 + P23 + P24 = 0.36958

鍓嶉潰绠楄繃锛屾鎯呭喌涓嬮€夋嫨 Stand 鑾疯儨鐨勬鐜?P(S) = F(H2) = 0.35831

P(H) > P(S)锛屾墍浠?Hit 涓烘渶浼樼瓥鐣ャ€?/p>

鐢ㄥ悓鏍风殑鏂规硶鎴戜滑鍙互绠楀嚭鐜╁鎵嬬墝鍜屼负 H12 鏃跺簞瀹剁涓€寮犵墝涓?H3~H11 鏃剁帺瀹堕€夋嫨 Hit 鑾疯儨鐨勬鐜囥€傛妸鎵€鏈夋儏鍐甸兘绠楀嚭鏉ワ紝灏卞緱鍒板涓嬬殑琛ㄦ牸锛?/p>

鍙樻崲璧屾敞鍙嶈触涓鸿儨

鍓嶉潰璇磋繃锛屽嵆渚胯儗鐔熻繖 3 涓煩闃碉紝鑳滅巼渚濈劧涓嶈兘杩囧崐銆傛渶浣崇瓥鐣ュ彧鑳借浣犱笉浼氳緭鐨勯偅涔堝揩锛屽彲娌″姙娉曞府浣犺耽閽便€傚湪 1963 骞达紝楹荤渷鐞嗗伐瀛﹂櫌鐨勭埍寰峰崕•绱㈡櫘鏁欐巿鏇惧仛杩囧疄楠岋紝鍙戠幇鍓╀綑鐨勭墝閲屽皬鐗岋紙7鍙婁互涓嬶級瓒婂锛屽簞瀹惰秺瀹规槗鑾疯儨锛屽墿浣欑殑澶х墝锛?銆?0銆丣銆丵銆並銆丄锛夎秺澶氾紝鐜╁瓒婂鏄撹幏鑳溿€傝繖鍏跺疄瀹规槗鐞嗚В锛屽簞瀹跺湪寮€鐗屾椂浼氫竴鐩存娊鐗岀洿鍒扮偣鏁板ぇ浜庣瓑浜?17锛屽鏋滆繖鏃跺墿涓嬬殑鐗岄噷澶х墝瓒婂锛屽簞瀹剁垎鎺夌殑鍙兘鎬т篃灏辫秺澶с€傚苟涓斿ぇ鐗屽鏃剁帺瀹舵洿瀹规槗閲囧彇 Double 绛栫暐澧炲姞鏀剁泭銆?/p>

璇村埌杩欓噷浣犲彲鑳戒篃鐚滃埌浜嗭紝鎯宠耽灏辫鍙樻崲璧屾敞銆傚湪鏈夊埄鏃惰祵澶т竴鐐癸紝涓嶅埄鏃惰祵灏忎竴鐐广€備笉杩囬棶棰樻槸锛屽浣曠煡閬撳墿浣欑殑鐗岄噷浠€涔堟椂鍊欏ぇ鐗屽锛熺瓟妗堟槸——璁扮墝銆?/p>

鏈変竴绉嶅熀鏈殑璁扮墝鏂规硶鍙珮浣庢硶锛屽畠鐨勭瓥鐣ユ槸浠?2~6 涓?-1 鍒嗭紝 7~9 涓?0 鍒嗭紝 10銆丣銆丵銆並銆丄 涓?1 鍒嗭紝鎶婂凡缁忓嚭杩囩殑鎵€鏈夌墝鐨勫垎鏁伴兘鍔犺捣鏉ワ紝濡傛灉杩欎釜鍒嗘暟寰堝ぇ鐨勮瘽渚胯鏄庡墿涓嬬殑鐗岄噷澶х墝杈冨皯銆備絾鏄彂瀹?1 鍓墝鍚庣疮绉殑 15 鍒嗗拰鍙戝畬 3 鍓墝鍚庣疮绉殑15鍒嗘墍钑村惈鐨勬剰涔夋樉鐒朵笉鍚岋紝鍥犳鍙堟湁涓嬮潰杩欎釜璋冩暣鍏紡锛?/p>

姣斿璇村紑灞€鐨勬椂鍊欐湁 6 鍓墝锛屽彂瀹?3 鍓箣鍚庣疮绉?15 鍒嗭紝閭ｇ湡姝ｅ€煎氨鏄?15/3 = 5銆?/p>

銆婅糠澶辩殑澶╂墠銆嬩竴涔︽浘浠嬬粛浜嗕笂涓栫邯 90 骞翠唬涓€缇?MIT 楂樻潗鐢熼€氳繃21鐐圭媯璧?300 涓囩殑鏁呬簨銆傝繖缇や汉姝ｆ槸鐢ㄩ珮浣庢硶鏉ヨ鐗岀殑锛岃櫧鐒惰繖涓柟娉曞拷鐣ヤ簡 2 鍜?6 涔嬮棿鐨勫樊寮傦紝绠椾笉涓婂畬缇庯紝浣嗗畠鑷冲皯涓嶅鏄撻敊锛岃鐭ラ亾鍦ㄨ禋寰楀皯鎬绘瘮杈撴帀濂姐€?/p>

鍦ㄧ幇瀹炴搷浣滀腑锛孧IT 灏忕粍浼氬垎鏁ｅソ鍑犱釜渚︽煡鍛樺湪涓嶅悓鐗屾涓婅鐗岋紝涓€鏃﹀彂鐜版煇寮犳瀛愮墝灞€寰堢儹锛屽氨浼氬彂淇″彿绀烘剰鍚屼即鏉ヤ笅澶ф敞锛屼睛鏌ュ憳涓嶅姩澹拌壊缁х画淇濇寔灏忚祵娉ㄣ€傚洟闃熷悎浣滅殑妯″紡锛屾洿瀹规槗璧㈠ぇ閽憋紝鍚屾椂杩樹篃寰堥毦寮曡捣璧屽満鐨勬€€鐤戙€傜數褰便€婂喅鑳?1鐐广€嬭杩扮殑灏辨槸杩欐牱涓€涓晠浜嬨€?/p>